The winter of 2017-18 has recently become a throwback to the winters of yore — the ones your parents told you about. You know, back when they had to walk uphill both ways to school in the blinding snow and 0-degree temperatures?
This time around, it's not just the severity of the cold that's getting to people. It's also the duration. The most reliable computer model projections show round after round of Arctic air moving from northern Canada down into the Midwest and then crashing into the Eastern U.S. through at least Jan. 10. There's the possibility of a warmup of sorts dancing like a mirage on the long-term horizon after that, but that's a less reliable extended-range forecast.
The peak of the cold outbreak may not come until early in 2018, with New Year's Day potentially becoming the coldest such holiday on record for many locations, from Chicago to Boston and northward to Montreal and Toronto.
SEE ALSO:It's so cold in the U.S. and Canada that windows are breaking, and there's no end in sightIn fact, millions of Americans ringing in the New Year may do so in the coldest weather on record for that night, with temperatures bottoming out at 50 degrees Fahrenheit below average in some areas from the Plains to the East Coast.
Computer model animation showing continued colder than average temperatures (blue and purple) in Canada and the Eastern U.S. into early 2018.Credit: tropicaltidbits.comAlaska-based climatologist Brian Brettschneider said it will be the coldest start to the new year in at least 70 years for the Eastern U.S. The famous Times Square ball drop could be the second-coldest on record, behind Jan. 1, 1962, when it was just 1-degree Fahrenheit.
Some cities in the U.S. and Canada are canceling outdoor New Year's Eve festivities, including the Canadian capital.
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Even after this bone-tingling cold, there are signs of still more severe cold moving in after a potential East Coast storm around Jan. 4 or 5.
In other words, it's not just you — this cold snap is noteworthy, both for its severity and its duration. In many areas, it's one of the sharpest cold waves to hit in between Christmas and New Years — period. Here are some of the cold temperature records that have been broken so far (H/T to weather.com for rounding up several of these records). This list will be updated throughout the event:
Dec. 29, 2017:
Many locations in and around New York City set or tied record daily lows on Friday morning including Newark, LaGuardia, and JFK Airports, as well as Islip, Long Island, and Bridgeport, Connecticut.
Dec. 28, 2017:
Boston set a record for the lowest maximum temperature for the date, with the high only reaching 12 degrees Fahrenheit. The previous record for the date was 18 degrees.
Flint, Michigan set an all-time December record-low temperature of minus-18 degrees Fahrenheit on Thursday morning. This broke the existing all-time December low of minus-14, which was recorded the previous day. It's possible that the new monthly record will fall again before this cold snap ends.
Alpena, Michigan, reached a low temperature of minus-19 degrees Fahrenheit on Dec. 28. This was the second-coldest December temperature on record there.
There were about 30 daily record lows set or tied in the lower 48 states on Thursday, including Watertown, New York, which hit minus-32 degrees Fahrenheit.
Daily records were also set in Syracuse, New York City, Baltimore, and Boston, among other locations.
Toronto, Ontario, reached minus-22 degrees Celsius, or minus-8 degrees Fahrenheit, on Thursday morning, which established a new daily record.
Muskoka Airport, Ontario, set a record low temperature of minus-36.4 degrees Celsius, or minus-34 degrees Fahrenheit, beating the old record of minus-28.3 degrees Celsius, set in 1963.
Montreal, Quebec, set a daily record low on Thursday, at minus-20.5 degrees Celsius, or minus-5 degrees Fahrenheit, beating the old record of minus-19.5 degrees, set in 1993.
Dec. 27, 2017:
International Falls, Minnesota, known as the "nation's icebox" set a daily record low on Wednesday when the actual air temperature reached minus-36 degrees Fahrenheit. This beat the previous daily record of minus-32 degrees.
Embarrass and Cotton, Minnesota, were even colder that morning at minus-40 and minus-41 degrees Fahrenheit, respectively. However, those were not record lows for those locations, believe it or not.
Lincoln, Nebraska, reached 17 below on Wednesday, setting a new daily record, and Norfolk, Nebraska set a daily record with minus-15 degrees.
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In Boston, National Weather Service meteorologists are tracking temperatures there to see if a particularly impressive record is rivaled or broken: the most consecutive days with highs at or below 20 degrees above zero Fahrenheit. The record currently stands at 7 days, which lasted from Dec. 29, 1917 to Jan. 4, 1918.
Computer model projections don't show a high temperature occurring in Boston that rises above 20 degrees Fahrenheit until Jan. 3 or Jan. 4 (which would be closely followed by a high in the single digits on Jan. 5). Assuming this projection is correct -- which is a big assumption given how much uncertainty is involved in weather forecasting -- then Boston would equal its century-old record cold streak.
No, this cold snap does not contradict global warming
While some climate deniers, including President Donald Trump, are using the Arctic blast to argue that global warming is a hoax, keep in mind that this is a short-term weather event, not a long-term climate trend.
Global average surface temperature anomalies on Dec. 29, 2017, as forecast by the GFS model.Credit: climate reanalyzerAlso, large portions of U.S. and Canada are currently experiencing the most unusually cold air of anywhere on the planet, with warmer-than-average air dominating the globe.
In just a few weeks, in fact, we'll find out that 2017 was for sure one of the top five warmest years in recorded history for our planet. This is a sign, scientists say, of the growing influence of greenhouse gases stemming from burning fossil fuels, chopping down rainforests, and other human activities.
Global average temperature change since 1880.Credit: climate change special reportAs a November climate report stated, we are now living in the warmest period in the history of modern human civilization. The report, which is part of the National Climate Assessment put together by federal science agencies, unequivocally said global warming is here, is occurring because of us, and is already having widespread impacts:
This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.
For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence.
So, while many Canadians and Americans may be wishing for a bit of warmer weather right now, perhaps it's the perfect time to marvel at the fact that on an increasingly warm planet, it can still get pretty darn cold.
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Climate model projections show that as we get toward the middle of the century and later, such cold events will get more rare, and are already becoming less likely to occur.
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